Thursday, July 26, 2007

So you're saying we still have a chance?

After any remotely positive stretch of games, we usually find ourselves consulting’s projections to see just how much the Jays have moved the needle in terms of their probability of making the playoffs.

With their current five-game win streak, Coolstandings’ adjusted Jamesian Pythagorean theorem figures the Jays’ probability of playing time in October at 4.3% (based on a 0.7% probability of winning the AL East, and a 3.6% probability of taking the Wild Card.)

Which, to paraphrase Lloyd Christmas, means they’re telling us we still have a chance.

Coolstandings figures that the Jays’ final record will fall somewhere around 83-79, which would likely be considered a disappointment, especially given last year’s 87 win season. The site also pegs the Indians at 91 wins, and the Yankees at about 90, which would mean that the Jays from this point on in the season would have to go on a 40-21 run to be right there in the final week.

After a feel-good week like this, we've gotta say that in unrepentant fan in us (foolishly? blindly?) likes our chances.

No comments: